Former PM warns about Donald Trump should China attack Australia

In an exclusive and eye-opening revelation, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has issued a stark warning about the reliability of the United States’ support, particularly under the leadership of Donald Trump, should China launch an attack on Australia. 

This cautionary statement comes at a time when geopolitical tensions in the Pacific are on the rise, and the security of nations in the region is under scrutiny.

Turnbull, who led Australia during Trump’s first term as President, expressed his concerns about the alleged unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy decisions during an interview.

‘You cannot assume anything about Donald Trump—it’s part of his brand to be unpredictable. Yes, he’s very transactional. I would hope that the United States would always come to our aid under the ANZUS treaty if we were attacked in the Pacific,’ he stated.

The ANZUS treaty, a cornerstone of the Australia-United States alliance since 1951, obligates the signatories to consult with each other in the event of an attack, but it stops short of mandating military action.

Turnbull highlighted this nuance, emphasising that ‘the obligation in the event of one party being attacked is to consult—there is no obligation to act.’

Australia’s current defence spending sits at 2 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP), a figure that falls short of the United States’ 3.5 per cent of GDP. 

Elbridge Colby, a defence advisor to Trump, has advocated for Australia to increase its defence budget to 3 per cent of GDP. Turnbull agrees with the sentiment, advocating for Australia to bolster its self-reliance in defence capabilities. 

‘It’s not just a question of spending more, it’s being more self-reliant,’  he said, aligning with the American perspective that allies should shoulder more of their defence burden.

Professor Peter Dean, a leading academic in foreign policy and defence at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, echoed these concerns. He suggested that Trump’s transactional nature could lead to demands for higher Australian defence spending as a condition for their support in the event of a conflict with China.

The conversation around defence spending is not just academic; it has real-world implications for Australia’s security and international relations. The recent AUKUS deal, which saw Australia pivot from a French submarine deal to a partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom for nuclear-powered submarines, is a testament to the shifting defence landscape.

Turnbull, however, expressed scepticism about the likelihood of Australia actually receiving Virginia Class submarines, regardless of who occupies the White House.

Domestically, Australian political leaders, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, have been criticised for focusing too heavily on domestic politics instead of defence and international policy.

With China conducting live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, the urgency for a robust defence strategy is palpable.

As government spending in Australia reaches record levels, the debate over defence funding becomes even more pressing. With Treasury projecting budget deficits amid weakening iron ore prices, the challenge of balancing defence needs with other domestic priorities, such as infrastructure, housing, and healthcare, is daunting—especially during a cost-of-living crisis.

Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles has indicated a willingness to push for increased defence spending. However, the government’s broader commitment remains to be seen.

‘We talked about defence spending, and there was a total acknowledgement of what we are doing in terms of lifting that trajectory. I think this ends up being an ongoing conversation,’ said Marles.

For Australians over 50, understanding the implications of these defence and foreign policy decisions is crucial. The security of the nation directly impacts the stability and prosperity that many have worked hard to achieve. As you navigate these complex issues, it is essential to stay informed and engaged with the policies that will shape the country’s future.

What are your thoughts on the former Prime Minister’s warning and the state of Australia’s defence spending? Do you feel secure in the current geopolitical climate? Share your views with the YourLifeChoices community in the conversation below.

Also read: China’s warships lurking near Sydney waters: Routine or rising tensions?