Canberra is once again abuzz with politicians and their cadres of staffers, with the first sitting fortnight of the new year well underway.
But the fact that parliament is sitting at all in February has surprised some, after last year’s speculation that there would be a federal election in March.
Trying to guess election dates before the prime minister lets us in on his thinking is always a somewhat futile exercise, but that has never stopped feverish speculation throughout the press gallery and beyond.
All we can say for certain until Anthony Albanese calls the election — a decision that is wholly his — is that we will go to the polls on a Saturday on or before May 17.
But given the government is midway through a full sitting fortnight, and if we presume they won’t cut parliament short, the number of possible election dates has fast dwindled.
By our count, six dates could feasibly be the one, and conventional wisdom states that four of those are more likely: April 12 or the first three Saturdays of May.
Key events that could determine the date
Between now and May 17, there are a few things on the calendar that complicate when the government can go to the polls.
First of all, there’s a much-anticipated interest rate announcement on February 18. It’s considered unlikely the prime minister will call an election before then, lest he lose out on the good vibes that could come from a rate cut.
If that were to eventuate — and it’s an if— many believe it would prompt Mr Albanese to go sooner rather than later to capitalise on the relief felt by mortgage holders.
Then there’s a West Australian election scheduled for March 8, and two campaigns running at the same time could get messy.
But the government likes to keep us on our toes, and over the weekend there were suggestions that the election might in fact be called in the middle of the West Australian run-up, creating a dual-campaign Frankenstein.
While that would be an unorthodox move, it’s technically a possibility and could mean election day falls in late March.
At this stage, the government is also scheduled to hand down a federal budget on March 25. An election held in May means they must go through with it for better or worse, while any earlier and the government can cross it out of its diary.
So, keeping in mind those key dates, here’s a month-by-month breakdown of what election days remain possible — and why some are more likely than others.
March: possible, but unlikely
There must be a minimum of 33 days between writs being issued by the governor-general, which dissolves parliament after the prime minister calls the election, and polling day.
The maximum is 58 days, a horrifying proposition for nearly everyone involved, but thankfully Australian governments have typically favoured shorter campaigns.
Therefore, if we assume the government will wait for the interest rate announcement before calling the election, the earliest it could be held is March 29.
But this would mean starting the campaign in the last week of February, which would cross over with the West Australian state race.
April: a busy month with one frontrunner
That brings us to April, a month chock-a-block with public holidays, making it hard to see many feasible options for a nationwide poll.
Easter and Anzac Day take up the second half of the month, making that an unattractive option.
An election in the first week, April 5, would also mean starting the campaign before the West Australian poll — making it, again, a bit messy.
So, that leaves just April 12. This date has frequently been cited as the most likely eventuality as it avoids any overlap with the West Australian election and steers clear of the public holidays in the second half of the month.
It also has the added bonus of allowing the government to skip the budget, if its forecasts for deficits now and into the future hold true.
But Mr Albanese only has a slim window to make it happen. Let’s assume he wants to give some space to the West Australian result before he calls the election. Writs would have to be issued no later than the following Monday — a public holiday in some states — to reach the minimum campaign length by April 12.
May: plenty of options
If April 12 doesn’t happen, May offers far more options for the government: May 3, May 10, and May 17 are all possibilities.
But those dates also bring with them some baggage. For one, both Easter and Anzac Day would fall during the campaign period, which could slow down the race.
While governments tend to try and avoid campaigns over the Easter break, they crossed over in both 2019 and 2022.
Whether less time on the campaign trail is good or bad news for the prime minister depends on who you ask. (Remember his days in COVID isolation during the last election campaign?)
Any of the May options would also require the government to hand down a federal budget.
Again, whether that would help or hinder the government’s chances is anyone’s guess. But after the mid-year economic update in December revealed a gloomy economic outlook, avoiding a federal budget could be a nifty way for the government to avoid having to announce another troubling bottom line.
What has Anthony Albanese said?
The prime minister hasn’t given us much to go off.
“We make decisions when we finalise them,” he told The Conversation’s Politics podcast over the weekend when asked if he had settled on a date.
“We certainly are working to hand down a budget in March.”
We do know that Mr Albanese is a fan of longer terms because he often shares his belief that the current three-year terms are too short when asked when the election will be.
But at this stage, with so few options left before the deadline, that doesn’t really tell us much at all.
